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Travel Stocks: Risk And Return Evaluation

Traders know that oil prices, terrorism, and corporate debt restructuring, factors that actually can't be controlled, have a large influence on the stock market. Many investors avoid airline stocks and shares for this reason. They cannot control one of their greatest expenses (gas) and an act of terrorism can significantly damage the industry.

Why are cruise stocks any better? Rising fuel expenses and Hurricane Katrina resulted in lower stock prices for organizations like Carnival Corporation as well as Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. These two cruise lines account for about 75 percent of the cruise industry, around the world.

When George Allen Smith IV, from Connecticut, disappeared while on a Royal Caribbean cruise, the market received plenty of damaging publicity.

Certainly, there are many negative aspects for cruise stocks, but some traders are bullish. First, there's no direct sign that the vanishing honeymooner from Connecticut has hurt ticket prices. Values on these stocks also look excellent.

Carnival Corporation trades at 16 times projected '06 earnings. Its historic range is 10 to 30 times earnings. Royal Caribbean trades at 14 times projected 2006 earnings. Its historic range is five to 24 times earnings. Growth potential is good as only 4 % of Americans have ever taken a cruise.

When considering cruise stocks, remember the potential for loss. A sharp rise in fuel costs or another terrorist strike would most likely have an adverse impact on cruise stocks.

If you're undecided about this investment, do you know how to short a stock? This may be a better route for you, specifically if you are experiencing corporate debt restructuring.

In my opinion the risk outweighs the possible reward as I do not expect cruise lines to considerably outperform the broader market.

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